Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System

The objective of this research is to introduce a novel framework quantify the risk reservoir system outside design envelope, taking into account risks related flood-protection and hydro-energy generation under unfavourable element conditions (system failures) hazardous situations within environment (flood event). To analyze water behavior in adverse conditions, analysis approach used, which founded upon dynamics model with causal loop. capability performing intended functionality can be quantified using traditional static measures like reliability, resilience vulnerability, or dynamic resilience. In paper, method for assessment multi-parameter introduced. envelops hydropower resilience, as two opposing demands operation regime. A case study Pirot reservoir, Republic Serbia, used. estimate multi -parameter system, hydrological model, simulation an inner control loop, developed. loop provides relation between flood-protection. calibrated generated climate inputs are used simulate long-term flow sequences. most severe flood event period extracted input simulations. performance five different scenarios various failure events (e.g., generator failure, segment gate on spillway, leakage from supply tunnel due earthquake) presented concept explicit modeling component failures through indicators. Based outputs determined and, later, protection Then, estimated compared (reliability). Discrepancy drop (from 0.851 0.935) reliability 0.993 1) shows that measure underestimates system. Thus, results show indicator, provide additional insight measures, leading identification vulnerable elements complex Additionally, it shown proposed components reflect overall functionality.